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Research  

Quarterly China Shadow Banking Monitor

[27 Jul] The overall leverage in China's economy continues to rise, as credit growth -- measured by total social financing -- outpaces nominal GDP. The growth in overall leverage may be understated, because some of the fastest growing components of shadow banking are not included in TSF. We estimate the potential understatement to be significant, amounting to at least RMB16 trillion or 23% of GDP at end-2015, equivalent to around one-third of shadow banking.


Green Bonds - Global: Record Quarterly Issuance Achieved in Q2 2016; Market Poised to Reach $75 billion

[26 Jul] Global green bond issuance in Q2 2016 reached a new quarterly high of $20.3 billion -- well above the $16.9 billion recorded in Q1 -- and resulting in a total for the first six months of the year of $37.2 billion, up 89% from $19.7 billion for the first half of 2015.


Inside China - July

[26 Jul] China has the tools to prevent a financial crisis from materializing in the near future, but that an erosion of credit quality is likely. Specifically, China's domestically funded and state-backed financial system, combined with a wide range of policy tools (including moral suasion) act as powerful mitigants to the risk of a financial crisis.


Indian auto ABS: Greater Commercial Vehicle Sales and ABS Issuance in FY2017 Reflect Positive Credit Conditions

[26 Jul] The issuance of Indian asset-backed securities (ABS) backed by loans on sales of commercial vehicles and commercial equipment -- the main ABS asset classes in India -- will continue to grow in the fiscal year ending 31 March 2017 (FY2017), extending the strong growth rates recorded in FY2016.


Australia -- Legal Framework for Covered Bonds

[26 Jul] The Australian legal framework for covered bonds contains relatively few prescriptive requirements, but rather relies on issuers to create programme structures using a contractual framework.


Asia TMT Quarterly – July 2016

[26 Jul] This edition, which covers the period from 1 April to 30 June 2016, incorporates a market trends snapshot of current rating trends and credit topics along with a selection of Moody's rating and research activities in the past quarter.


Soilbuild REIT: Credit Impact of Tenant under Judicial Management and Planned Acquisition: A Scenario Analysis

[25 Jul] We examined three scenarios and their potential impact on Soilbuild Business Space REIT's credit profile. In each scenario, we estimated the impact on (1) Soilbuild REIT's earnings and asset valuation that could result from the lost income from defaulted tenant Technics Offshore Engineering Pte. Ltd (unrated) at its 72 Loyang Way property; and (2) its capital structure which is dependent on the funding mix of its planned acquisition of Bukit Batok Connection for SGD100 million.


RMBS - India: Underwriting Standards for Affordable Housing Loans Can Differentiate RMBS Performance

[25 Jul] The underwriting practices of lenders are vital to controlling credit risk in India's "affordable housing loans" segment which is set to grow strongly over the next few years as the government tries to increase home ownership among underprivileged groups.

 

High-Yield Corporates in South and Southeast Asia: Most Rated Companies Maintain Safeguards Against Exposure to US Dollar Debt

[21 Jul] A total 33 of our 37 rated non-financial, high-yield companies with USD debt show protections against a significant rise in leverage or contraction in EBITDA, should their local currencies depreciate up to 20% against the USD. At the same time, although the local currencies, which consist primarily of the Indonesian rupiah and the Indian rupee, have shown relative stability in 2016, we continue to monitor the risk of profitability declining, or debt levels and borrowing costs rising, if they weaken against the dollar.

 

The Evolution of Emerging Markets External Debt: Private Sector Debt Drives Broad-Based Build-Up of Emerging Markets External Vulnerability Risks

[21 Jul] The growth in debt was the highest in the Asia Pacific region, with the largest increase in external borrowing in China, India, Indonesia, Taiwan and Malaysia. While China's external debt to GDP ratio is still the second-lowest globally at 13% of GDP in 2015, the average external debt to GDP ratio for Asia as a whole has recently increased from 31% in 2008 to 47% in 2015 -- well below the 78% of Emerging Europe, but comparable to the 48% in Latin America and the 43% in the Middles East and Africa region.

 

Asian high-yield bonds, "High-Yield Bond Covenants — Asia: Covenant Quality Strengthens in Q2

[20 Jul] The average covenant quality score for Asian high-yield bonds issued during the April-June 2016 quarter (Q2 2016) was at a moderate 2.63. The score improved from the weak 3.48 registered during Q1 2016 and the 2.90 seen in Q4 2015.


Credit Analysis: Asian Development Bank

[12 Jul] The Asian Development Bank's average borrower credit quality has remained stable since 2011, despite economic stress in Asia caused by the sharp and prolonged fall in commodity prices and the ongoing slowdown in China.

 

Sovereigns -- Brexit and Asia Pacific: Limited Direct Credit Impact; Some Sovereigns Exposed to Market Volatility

[11 Jul] The United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union will not have a significant credit impact on Asia Pacific sovereigns, but dependence on external finance poses a vulnerability for some countries.

 

Taiwan life insurance sector--Adoption of IFRS 4 Phase II Will Benefit Credit Profiles, Despite Adjustment Challenges

[11 Jul] The potential adoption by Taiwanese life insurers of International Financial Reporting Standards 4 Phase II will improve their ability to measure their policy liabilities, while various associated challenges will prove manageable.

 

Asian Liquidity Stress Index: July

[11 Jul] Our Asian Liquidity Stress Index fell to 32.5% in June 2016 from 33.6%in May 2016. The reading in June remains below the record high of 37.0% reached in December 2008 amid the global financial crisis, but is higher than the trailing 12-month average, highlighting the weakness in corporate liquidity across Asia.

 

Japanese non-financial corporates: Cash Holdings Remain High with a 4% Rise, Despite 59% Increase in Share Buybacks

[07 Jul] The total amount of cash held by its rated non-financial companies in Japan was JPY31.6 trillion ($281 billion) at the end of their respective 2015 fiscal years (which may differ), up 4% from the JPY30.3 trillion ($269 billion) held by its rated portfolio at the end of fiscal 2014.

 

Government-Related Issuers -- Korea: Public-Sector Reforms Raise Medium- to Long-Term Credit Challenges

[07 Jul] The Korean government's planned public-sector reforms will raise the risk of credit quality erosion for many rated infrastructure and corporate government-related issuers and their subsidiaries over the medium and long term.

Moody’s Credit Outlook on 21 & 25 July


[21 Jul] Joy City's Proposed Stake Sale in Subsidiaries Is Credit Positive

for COFCO HK; Azerbaijan's Recession Deepens with Oil Price Decline and

Currency Devaluation, a Credit Negative; Astaldi's Turkish Projects Face Increasing Risks, a

Credit Negative; and more

 

[25 Jul] SoftBank's $31 Billion ARM Acquisition Is Credit Negative; Indian Overseas Bank and Central Bank of India Benefit from

Government's Capital Infusion; New Zealand Banks Will Benefit from Tighter Rules on High-

LTV Mortgage Loans; Mongolia Strengthens Ties with South Korea, a Credit Positive; and more


RATING EVENTS


AUSTRALIA

[26 Jul] Moody's affirms Ventia's Ba2 rating; outlook stable

 

CHINA

[20 Jul] Moody's revises outlook on Yuexiu Transport to stable; affirms Baa2 ratings

[22 Jul] Moody's assigns definitive ratings to Driver China four Trust, a Chinese auto loan ABS deal

[26 Jul] Moody's assigns first-time B2 ratings to Fenghui Leasing

 

HONG KONG

[20 Jul] Moody's assigns provisional (P)Ba3 to Greenland Hong Kong's proposed perpetual capital securities

 

INDIA

[20 Jul] Moody's affirms Export-Import Bank of India's Baa3 ratings; lowers BCA to

ba3

 

INDONESIA

[25 Jul] Moody's downgrades MNC Investama's corporate family rating to B3 and senior secured bond rating to Caa1; outlook negative

 

JAPAN

[20 Jul] Moody's affirms SoftBank's Ba1 rating

[25 Jul] Moody's affirms A1 (sf) rating for Bora 2 backed by residential mortgages insured by JHF

 

KOREA

[26 Jul] Moody's: S-OIL's robust 2Q 2016 results support its Baa2 rating

[26 Jul] Moody's revises outlook on SK Innovation's and SK Global Chemical's Baa2 ratings to positive

 

MALAYSIA

[21 Jul] Moody's affirms Export-Import Bank of Malaysia's ratings; outlook stable

[22 Jul] Moody's assigns definitive Baa2 rating to Axiata's sukuk notes

 

SINGAPORE

[22 Jul] Moody's affirms OCBC Wing Hang Bank's ratings following its acquisition of OCBC Bank (China) Limited; outlook remains negative

 

ANNOUNCEMENTS

 

AUSTRALIA

[22 Jul] Moody's: Rating of BHB Residential Securities Trust 1 Series 1A unaffected by issuance of additional notes

 

CHINA

[21 Jul] Moody's: Biostime's ratings unaffected by proposed roll-up call option transactions

[25 Jul] Moody's: Progress on Vedanta-Cairn India merger is credit positive for Vedanta Resources

[25 Jul] Moody's: Hangzhou Hikvision's 1H 2016 results are in line with its A3 ratings

[26 Jul] Moody's: COSL's 1H2016 profit warning is credit negative; no immediate rating impact

[26 Jul] Moody's: SINOPEC Engineering's profit warning is credit negative; mitigated by strong liquidity

[26 Jul] Moody's: No immediate rating impact from CITIC Limited's profit warning

[26 Jul] Moody's: China's railway expansion plan is credit positive for China Railway Group

[26 Jul] Moody's: China Railway Construction is a key beneficiary of China's robust railway expansion plan

 

JAPAN

[22 Jul] Moody's: Chugoku Bank rebalances portfolio; raises risk-weighted assets

 

KOREA

[22 Jul] Moody's: POSCO's ratings unaffected by its moderate 2Q results

[22 Jul] Moody's: LG Chem's robust 2Q 2016 results support its A3 rating

[25 Jul] Moody's: Hyundai Steel's 2Q 2016 results meet expectations

   

ANNOUNCEMENTS

AUSTRALIA

[08 Jul] Moody's: No rating impact on Victoria Teachers Trust Series 2012-1 from Uplift

 

CHINA

[08 Jul] Moody's: State Grid International Development's overseas investments have no immediate rating impact

[11 Jul] Moody's: Texhong's improved earnings in 1H 2016 support its Ba3 rating

[12 Jul] Moody's: China National Travel's merger with China International Travel is credit positive for China Travel Service

 

HONG KONG

[06 Jul] Moody's: Lifestyle's fair value loss on financial assets has no immediate rating impact

[11 Jul] Moody's: MCE Finance's ratings unaffected by proposed amendment to change of control clause

 

MOODY’S EVENTS

Briefing: New Zealand Banks and Covered Bond Sectors: What Lies Ahead and How Do These Sectors Compare Globally?
Auckland, 2 Aug

The 2nd Moody’s, ICRA and NYU Stern Conference: Opportunities and Challenges for Indian Fixed Income Markets
Mumbai, 3 Aug

Sponsorship: KangaNews New Zealand DCM Summit 2016

Auckland, 3 Aug

Briefing: New Zealand Banks and Covered Bond Sectors: What Lies Ahead and How Do These Sectors Compare Globally?
Wellington, 5 Aug

Sponsorship: The 8th Annual Corporate Treasury & CFO Summit
Manila, 16 Aug

Moody’s & ICRA Workshop - Understanding Covered Bonds: Is the Time Ripe for Covered Bonds in India?
Mumbai, 23 Aug

Sponsorship: Frontier Conference - Invest Mongolia Ulaanbaatar 2016
Ulaanbaatar, 5 - 6 Sep

Pre-Event Workshop: Moody’s APAC Structured Finance Conference 2016--Asian Securitization and Covered Bonds Navigating Through Tumultuous Changes
Singapore, 27 Sep

Main Conference: Moody’s APAC Structured Finance Conference 2016--Asian Securitization and Covered Bonds Navigating Through Tumultuous Changes
Singapore, 27 Sep

Sponsorship: ASIFMA Structured Finance Conference 2016 - Asian Securitization and Covered Bonds
Singapore, 29 Sep

Sponsorship: World Bank - Singapore Infrastructure Finance Summit: Connectivity and Sustainability in an Era of Volatile Markets and Disruptive Technologies
Singapore, 17 Oct

             

Click below to access teleconference / webcast replay. (*Free registration is required)

Moody's Global Teleconference Series: The Credit Performance of Infrastructure Debt


 

HT Global IT Solutions Holdings Limited: Behind the First-Time Ba3 Corporate Family Rating, 5 July 2016


MOODY’S TRAINING SEMINARS


HONG KONG

Counterparty Credit Risk, 15-16 Aug

Introduction to Derivatives, 17-18 Aug

Advanced Corporate Credit Analysis, 5-7 Sep

Credit Reasoning & Writing, 8-9 Sep

 

KUALA LUMPUR

Islamic Finance – Risk Management, 21-22 Nov

Islamic Finance – Sukuk: Theory and Practice, 23-24 Nov

 

SINGAPORE

Bank Regulation: Impact and Implications of Evolving Regimes, 11-12 Aug

Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 15-16 Aug

Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 17-19 Aug

Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 31 Oct-2 Nov

Covenants & Documentation, 3 Nov

Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 6-9 Dec

 

SYDNEY

Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 29 Aug-1 Sep

Advanced Corporate Credit Analysis, 11-13 Oct

Covenants and Documentation, 14 Oct

 

TOKYO

Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 1-2 Dec

 

http://www.moodysanalytics.com/News-Events/Upcoming-Training-Events.aspx

       

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Moody’s Structured Finance Quick Check

Weekly global summary of structured finance credit, ratings and methodologies. Go here to subscribe.

 

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